COVID-19: Pandemics and ‘Infodemics’

Posted on September 7, 2021September 6, 2021 by lindsey.pike

Drs Luisa Zuccolo and Cheryl McQuire, Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol.

The problem

Soon after the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11th 2020, the UN declared the start of an infodemic, highlighting the danger posed by the fast spreading of unchecked misinformation. Defined as an overabundance of information, including deliberate efforts to disseminate incorrect information, the COVID-19 infodemic has exacerbated public mistrust and jeopardised public health.

Social media platforms remain a leading contributor to the rapid spread of COVID-19 misinformation. Despite urgent calls from the WHO to combat this, public health responses have been severely limited. In this project, we took steps to begin to understand and address this problem.

We believe that it is imperative that public health researchers evolve and develop the skills and collaborations necessary to combat misinformation in the social media landscape. For this reason, in Autumn 2020 we extended our interest in public health messaging, usually around promoting healthy behaviours during pregnancy, to study COVID-19 misinformation on social media.

We wanted to know:

What is the nature, extent and reach of misinformation about face masks on Twitter during the COVID-19 pandemic?

To answer this question we aimed to:

Upskill public health researchers in the data capture and analysis methods required for social media data research;
Work collaboratively with Research IT and Research Software Engineer colleagues to conduct a pilot study harnessing social media data to explore misinformation.

The team

Dr Cheryl McQuire got the project funded and off the ground. Dr Luisa Zuccolo led it through to completion. Dr Maria Sobczyk checked the data and analysed our preliminary data. Research IT colleagues, led by Mr Mike Jones, helped to develop the search strategy and built a data pipeline to retrieve and store Twitter data using customised application programming interfaces (APIs) accessed through an academic Twitter account. Research Software Engineering colleagues, led by Dr Christopher Woods, provided consultancy services and advised on the analysis plan and technical execution of the project.

Cheryl McQuire, Luisa Zuccolo, Maria Sobcyzk, Mike Jones, Christopher Woods. (Left to Right)

Too much information?!

Initial testing of the Twitter API showed that keywords, such as ‘mask’ and ‘masks’, returned an unmanageable amount of data, and our queries would often crash due to an overload of Twitter servers (503-type errors). To address this, we sought to reduce the number of results, while maintaining a broad coverage of the first year of the pandemic (March 2020-April 2021).

Specifically, we:

I) Searched for hashtags rather than keywords, restricting to English language.

II) Requested original tweets only, omitting replies and retweets.

III) Broke each month down into its individual days in our search queries to minimise the risk of overload.

IV) Developed Python scripts to query the Twitter API and process the results into a series of CSV files containing anonymised tweets, metadata and metrics about the tweets (no. of likes, retweets etc.), and details and metrics about the author (no. of followers etc.).

V) Merged data into a single CSV file with all the tweets for each calendar month after removing duplicates.

What did we find?

Our search strategy delivered over three million tweets. Just under half of these were filtered out by removing commercial URLs and undesired keywords, the remaining 1.7m tweets by ~700k users were analysed using standard and customized R scripts.

First, we used unsupervised methods to describe any and all Twitter activity picked up by our broad searches (whether classified as misinformation or not). The timeline of this activity revealed clear peaks around the UK-enforced mask mandates in June and September 2020.

We further described the entire corpus of tweets on face masks by mapping the network of its most common bigrams and performing sentiment analysis.

We then quantified the nature and extent of misinformation through topic modelling, and used simple counts of likes to estimate the reach of misinformation. We used semi-supervised methods including manual keyword searches to look for established types of misinformation such as face masks restricting oxygen supply. These revealed that the risk of bacterial/fungal infection was the most common type of misinformation, followed by restriction of oxygen supply, although the extent of misinformation on the risks of infection decreased as the pandemic unfolded.

Extent of misinformation (no tweets), according to its nature: 1- gas exchange/oxygen deprivation, 2- risk of bacterial/fungal infection, 3- ineffectiveness in reducing transmission, 4- poor learning outcomes in schools.

Relative to the volume of tweets including the hashtags relevant to face masks (~1.7m), our searches uncovered less than 3.5% unique tweets containing one of the four types of misinformation against mask usage.

A summary of the nature, extent and reach of misinformation on face masks on Twitter – results from manual keywords search (semi-supervised topic modelling).

A more in-depth analysis of the results attributed to the 4 main misinformation topics by the semi-supervised method revealed a number of potentially spurious topics. Refinements of these methods including iterative fine-tuning were beyond the scope of this pilot analysis.

Our initial exploration of Twitter data for public health messaging also revealed common pitfalls of mining Twitter data, including the need for a selective search strategy when using academic Twitter accounts, hashtag ‘hijacking’ meaning most tweets were irrelevant, imperfect Twitter language filters and ads often exploiting user mentions.

Next steps

We hope to secure further funding to follow-up this pilot project. By expanding our collaboration network, we aim to improve the way we tackle misinformation in the public health domain, ultimately increasing the impact of this work. If you’re interested in health messaging, misinformation and social media, we would love to hear from you – @Luisa_Zu and @cheryl_mcquire.

Note:

This blog post was original written for the Jean Golding Institute blog

Can we ever achieve “zero COVID”?

Posted on July 30, 2020February 11, 2025 by relfg

Marcus Munafo and George Davey Smith

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An important ongoing debate is whether the UK’s COVID strategy should focus on suppression (maintaining various restrictions to ensure the reproduction rate of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remains at or below 1), or elimination (reducing the number of infections to a sufficiently low level that restrictions could be removed). Independent SAGE has explicitly called for a “zero COVID UK”. (more…)

Are schools in the COVID-19 era safe?

Posted on July 1, 2020February 11, 2025 by lindsey.pike

Sarah Lewis, Marcus Munafo and George Davey Smith

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The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-COV2 virus in 2020 has so far resulted in a heavy death toll and caused unprecedented disruption worldwide. Many countries have opted for drastic measures and even full lockdowns of all but essential services to slow the spread of disease and to stop health care systems becoming overwhelmed. However, whilst lockdowns happened fast and were well adhered to in most countries, coming out of lockdown is proving to be more challenging. Policymakers have been trying to balance relaxing restriction measures with keeping virus transmission low. One of the most controversial aspects has been when and how to reopen schools. (more…)

Are teachers at high risk of death from Covid19?

Posted on May 26, 2020February 11, 2025 by lindsey.pike

Sarah Lewis, George Davey Smith and Marcus Munafo

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Due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic schools across the United Kingdom were closed to all but a small minority of pupils (children of keyworkers and vulnerable children) on the 20^th March 2020, with some schools reporting as few as 5 pupils currently attending. The UK government have now issued guidance that primary schools in England should start to accept pupils back from the 1^st June 2020 with a staggered return, starting with reception, year 1 and year 6. (more…)

Beyond question: a collaboration between EPoCH and artist Olga Trevisan

Posted on January 14, 2020 by lindsey.pike

Back in May, IEU researcher Dr Gemma Sharp took part in Creative Reactions, an initiative that pairs scientists with artists to create artwork based on their academic research. With 50 artists and 50 scientists collaborating on works from sculptures and wood carvings to canvas, digital and performance art, the 2019 exhibition ran across two venues in Bristol.

Gemma was paired with Olga Trevisan, an artist based in Venice, Italy. They had conversations over Skype where they spoke about their work and formed some initial ideas about how they could combine their interests in a new way while remaining coherent to their own practices. Reflecting on the collaboration, Olga said, “I love how curious you can be of a subject you haven’t considered before. I believe collaboration helps to open your own mind.”

Based on some of the work around EPoCH, Olga created a piece called Beyond Question, which comments on the complexities of scientific data collection, bias and interpretation.

It poses questions around the pervasive assumption that pregnant women are more responsible for the (ill) health of their unborn children than their male partners are. Gemma and colleagues have argued that such assumptions drive the research agenda and the public perception of parental roles, by shaping which research questions get asked, which data are collected, and the quality of the scientific ‘answer’.

Beyond Question was presented in two phases at two separate exhibitions: during the first phase, people were invited to answer questions with a simple Yes or No using a stylus; leaving no marks but only invisible, anonymous traces on the surface below. Answers will reflect the real assumptions, beliefs and attitudes of the respondent, but perhaps also, despite anonymity, their eagerness to ‘please’ the questioners, to give the ‘right’ answer, and to mask their true responses to paint themselves in the ‘best’ light.

In the second phase, the questions were removed and the answer traces were left alone to carry their own meaning; free to be combined with the attitudes, beliefs and assumptions of the viewer and to be interpreted and judged in perhaps an entirely different way.

The questions posed were:

“Do you think a mother’s lifestyle around the time of pregnancy could be bad for her baby’s health?”
“Do you think a father’s lifestyle around the time of pregnancy could be bad for his baby’s health?”
“Before her baby is born, a pregnant mother shouldn’t be allowed to do unhealthy things, like smoke or drink alcohol. Do you agree or disagree?”
“Before his baby is born, a father shouldn’t be allowed to do unhealthy things, like smoke or drink alcohol. Do you agree or disagree?”

Find out more

Further info about Creative Reactions Bristol is available on their facebook page, or contact Matthew Lee on matthew.lee@bristol.ac.uk

This blog post was originally posted on the EPOCH blog.

Why haven’t e-cigarettes stubbed out cigarettes?

Posted on May 31, 2019May 31, 2019 by lindsey.pike

On World No Tobacco Day, PhD researcher Jasmine Khouja outlines the evidence around e-cigarettes.

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There are an estimated 3.2 million e-cigarette users in Great Britain, and the majority of users have switched from smoking to vaping in search of a less harmful alternative to help them quit. In a recent study, people who used e-cigarettes to quit smoking were more likely to be smoke-free after one year compared to people who used more traditional methods such as nicotine patches. So, why are some smokers reluctant to try e-cigarettes, and why have some people been unable to quit smoking using them? The media, researchers, public health officials, and the general public have all played a role in discouraging some smokers from vaping.

E-cigarettes in the media

As a researcher in the field of e-cigarette use, I have often looked at news articles about vaping and felt exasperated. We frequently see e-cigarettes portrayed as a harmful option; according to many news articles, e-cigarettes are dangerous, lead to heart attacks and are as bad for your lungs as cigarettes. The same news outlets often report the opposite finding and say e-cigarettes are actually better for you. This flip-flopping leaves smokers confused and could discourage them from trying e-cigarettes for fear that vaping is actually more harmful than smoking.

Science in the media

So, why do the media keep switching their stance on e-cigarettes? They’re getting their information from the research community, and this community is divided. Some researchers claim that the costs of unknown health risks of vaping and the popularity of e-cigarettes among children and adolescents outweigh the potential benefits of helping smokers to quit, and others claim vice versa.

As researchers, we should be impartial and only provide the public with information which we can back up with evidence from our research, but, as we are still human, our opinions tend to seep through into how we report our findings and even what we choose to research. This lack of agreement in the research community is fuelling the media’s flip-flopping , leading to public confusion and reluctance to try e-cigarettes to help them quit smoking.

Public attitudes to vaping

With all of this contrasting information, it’s no wonder the general public’s opinion of vaping seems to be split too. Negative public opinion can have an impact on whether a smoker wants to try an e-cigarette. Quitting smoking isn’t easy; the last thing smokers want is to feel judged when they are trying to quit.

Negative public attitudes to vaping could put smokers off trying vaping but also affects where they can vape. Many businesses include e-cigarettes in their smoke free policies so that vapers have to stand outside with smokers. When trying to quit, it’s not ideal to be surrounded by the very thing you’re trying to wean yourself off. It’s like being on a diet and spending every meal at an all you can eat buffet when all you can eat is a salad; it’s tempting to slip into old habits. So, despite there being no indoor vaping ban (as there is with cigarettes), vapers are forced outside into a situation where they are more likely to start smoking again.

Unintended consequences of policy

It’s not just organisational policies attempting to control e-cigarette use; in 2016, a legislation called the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) added a section on e-cigarettes in an attempt to regulate the devices. There were a number of unpopular changes to e-cigarette products as a result. Changes to the amount of nicotine allowed in products and restrictions on innovation of new products may have had unintended consequences.

With the introduction of the TPD, a limit was set on how much nicotine a vape product could contain. Nicotine is the key ingredient in cigarettes which keeps people smoking, and although it is highly addictive, nicotine is not the cigarette ingredient which is likely to kill smokers. E-cigarettes help people to quit smoking because they can contain nicotine which satisfies smokers cravings while exposing them to fewer toxins than smoking would. Limiting the amount of nicotine in these products means that heavier smokers don’t receive enough nicotine from an e-cigarette to satisfy their nicotine addiction and this makes them more likely to start smoking again.

The TPD also requires companies to register products in advance of bringing them to market. Where the e-cigarette industry was creating new, more effective devices at a very fast pace, users now can’t buy these products for a substantial amount of time after they have been developed. This restriction on innovation means that while consumers are waiting for these better products to become available, they could be trying products that don’t meet their needs. I often hear tales of “I tried one once and it was just like puffing air, so I kept smoking instead”. They have tried one product, it wasn’t good enough, and they assume all other products will be just as bad. By restricting innovation, we limit the amount of better-quality devices on the market and increase the likelihood that a smoker looking to quit will come across a poor device and turn back to smoking.

Making it easy to stop smoking

Many smokers want to quit and we, as researchers, media representatives, public health officials and even members of the public, need to make it as easy as possible for them to do so. We need to be clearer in the information we provide, be more accepting of vaping and not limit products which could help the most addicted smokers. I still have hope that smoking will be stubbed out in my generation, and that e-cigarettes could be the disruptive technology needed to help us achieve this.